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President Volodymyr Zelenskyy of Ukraine stated that proposals for a ceasefire agreement developed with American diplomats could be finalised in a matter of days. Afterward, U.S. representatives are expected to present the terms to the Russian leadership.

Berlin Talks Yield Major Headway, But Key Hurdles Persist

Following extensive talks in Berlin, American negotiators reported on Monday that around “90%” of the disputed points between Moscow and Kyiv had been resolved. Despite this optimistic assessment, an actual conclusion to the war is not guaranteed, especially given the Russian lack of participation from the ongoing discussions.

In the early hours of Tuesday, Zelenskyy said that the US Congress is expected to consider security guarantees and that a complete package of agreements could be prepared “today or tomorrow.” He added that, the United States would engage in discussions with Moscow, potentially followed by summit-level talks possibly this weekend.

Security Guarantees and Allied Backing

“The plan involves five key agreements. Several pertain to binding security pledges: legally binding, that is, voted on and approved by the US Congress,” Zelenskyy commented to the press. He clarified that these assurances would “reflect the collective defense clause” of the Nato alliance.

Earlier, American representatives did not provide precise information regarding the probable makeup of the defense package or what would happen if Russia attempted to seize additional territory following an agreement. Officials did confirm that the U.S. does not intend to place boots on the ground in Ukraine.

Leaders from the United Kingdom, France, and Germany and several additional European nations issued a joint statement that troops from a “coalition of the willing” could “help with the rebuilding of Ukrainian military capabilities, in protecting Ukraine’s skies, and in supporting maritime security, potentially by conducting operations within its territory.”

They stopped short, however, of suggesting these measures would constitute guarantees matching Nato’s article 5. Furthermore, there is scant indication that Russia is near agreeing to the kind of arrangement being negotiated between Washington and Kyiv.

Moscow's Stance and Land Issue

On Tuesday, the Kremlin said it had not received the details of the proposals on security assurances. Russia’s deputy foreign minister, Sergei Ryabkov, asserted that Russia would not agree to forces of NATO member states being stationed in Ukrainian territory “under any circumstances.”

The primary obstacle between the Ukrainian team and their American counterparts remains the issue of land. A key demand centers on Kyiv ceding the parts of the Donbas it currently controls, while Ukraine prefers to freeze the lines. “Talks continue on the territorial issue. You know, it is one of the key issues. At this point, there is no consensus on it yet,” Zelenskyy remarked following the Berlin discussions.

American mediators, led by two senior advisors, has suggested a compromise solution. Under this plan would see Ukraine withdraw, but Russia would not advance, with the demilitarised area established as “a free economic zone.” Moscow has suggested it could use internal security units instead of the military in such an area, suggesting it would still seek to maintain authority there.

“I want to stress once again: a ‘special economic zone’ does not mean under the control of Russia. Not legally or in practice will we recognise Donbas – its currently occupied areas – as belonging to Russia. Categorically,” stated Zelenskyy.

Path Forward and Possible Scenarios

The way ahead is uncertain how Moscow and Kyiv will resolve the land question. Zelenskyy has previously suggested that a negotiated arrangement like a special economic area could be theoretically possible if the citizens of Ukraine approved it in a referendum. The major impediment is expected to arise when the plans are presented to President Vladimir Putin of Russia, who has shown no indication he is willing to compromise on his war aims.

“Should Russia refuse all proposals, we will face exactly what we are encountering on our plane right now – turbulence,” said the president, making the statement after his plane departed from Berlin.

“I am confident the United States will increase sanction pressure and provide us with additional armaments if he rejects everything. I think, that would be a reasonable expectation from us to the United States,” he added.